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In the Winning Post in 2000, Craig White introduced readers to his formula for rating horse races (reproduced below). Each week on this page he subjects the race of the week to the formula. This week we have rated the Bat Out of Hell (race 7) at the Gold Coast on Saturday, assuming a good track. Scratchings may affect ratings. |
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track good |
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Step 1: earnings (20) Rank the top 10 horses in the race according to average prizemoney per start ("Avg" in Winning Post's form guides). Number one gets 20, number 2 gets 18 and so on down to number 10, who gets 2 points. Step 2: strike rate (20) The strike rate is noted as W% in Winning Post form guides. A horse with a strike rate of 50 per cent or more deserves full marks (20) for consistency. From there, take off two points for every five per cent below 50. So 50+ = 20 points. 45-49 = 18. 40-44= 16. 35-39 = 14. 30-34 = 12. 25-29 = 10. 20-24 = 8. Less than 20 earns nothing. Step 3: form (18) Category 1 (for horses who are not first up): If a horse won last start or finished within a length of the winner, it deserves full marks (18). From there deduct three points for each length astern. So if a horse was beaten between 1.1 and two lengths, give it 15. Up to three lengths 12, up to four lengths 9, up to five lengths six. If it was beaten more than five lengths it gets nothing. Step 4: track condition (12) If a horse has won half or more of its starts on today's track condition, give it 12. If it has won, but less than half, give it 9. If it has never won but has placed, give it 6. If it has never raced in today's conditions, it gets 8. If it has raced on today's track condition but never placed, it gets none. Step 5: distance (12) If a horse has won half its starts at today's distance or more, give it 12. Less than half, 9. Never won but placed, 6. Never raced at the distance, 8. Raced at the distance but never placed, 0. Step 6: track (12) If a horse has won half its starts at today's track or more, give it 12. Less than half, 9. Never won but placed, 6. Never raced at the track, 8. Raced at the track but never placed, 0. Step 7: barrier (6) Give 6 points for barriers 1-4, 4 points for 5-8, 2 points for 9-12, 0 points for 13 or higher. I make an exception for straight races at Flemington and Victoria Park, for which no horses get any barrier points unless I have watched one race down the straight and determined which side is favored. (If it's the outside, the outside four barriers get 6 points and so on.) |
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Record of top selections* |
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