October
AugustDon't rush to judgment
I believe Rexy’s criticism of the Super Eight panel tips on Saturday August 11 was somewhat over the top. Of course it is true the panel had a wipeout that day, but to be so critical of one day’s poor performance is just as bad as declaring someone a genius because they tip the card — on one day.
I have been casually watching the tips of the panel for some months, and was impressed by what appeared to be fairly consistent good results — although I had not kept any figures to back up my observations.
I decided to start backing their suggestions on June 23. Not a long time ago, and certainly not long enough to arrive at any conclusions for or against their tips. However the following figures are most encouraging.
From June 23 right up to and including last Saturday (August 18) there have been 87 actual tips. (All-ups are considered one tip.) Tips at odds-on were disregarded. There were 28 winners, and two each-way bets that gave a small profit when running a place. This is an acceptable strike rate of 32.18 percent and the average price has been $3.64, or a shade over 5/2.
I started following the panel with an imaginary "bank" on paper of $2000. This figure was selected as I always bet one percent of my bank. As the panel suggest $20 as the base bet, $2000 became the bank figure as $20 is one percent of $2000. I never bet less than $20, even if losing, thus I can go for 100 consecutive losing bets. However I doubt you would keep following the panel long before you finished a streak of 100 consecutive losers.
As my bank increases so do my bets, maintaining the level of one percent and I never go down in the size of my bet. During the nine weeks of following the panel, my $2000 bank grew to a high point of $2408.50 at the end of July 7, a 20.4-percent profit in only one month. During that month my bets increased from $20 through $21 to $22, $23 and $24. So when a panel tipper says have $20 on, I now have $24, or if he says $10 I have $12.
After the nasty wipeout two weeks ago my bank dropped back to $2271, but my level of investment stayed at $24. After last Saturday the bank climbed back to $2339 and I will keep at the $24 level until I "do" $2000 or reach $2500, when I will bet $25 and so on. By working this "progressive flat stake" I have hopes the panel tips will see me double my bank by June next year, at which point I will take my profits and probably start again.
So you see, Rexy, you should never make critical comments after only one day’s results. I believe to be successful at the punt you must exercise diligence, conservatism (not too many bets — the panel gives me more than enough "action"), a sense of value and persistence.
Incidentally, to maximise my value I always bet "maxi div" or "best of the best" with corporate bookmakers, and the figures I have submitted are based on those — not SP or TAB divs.
Who knows? In the long run the Super Eight may prove to be a failure, but then again after an encouraging two-month start, perhaps … well, we can dream, can’t we?
Brighton (Qld)