October
JanuaryExperience counts
Keith Lofthouse (23/1) presents an interesting thesis, that there is little difference in ability between the best 20 jockeys and the next 80, and that overall the skill differences among the top 100 are “marginal”.
I agree with Keith that “greater opportunity brings the ability to win more races and so the perception is that they (the top 20) are ‘better’ jocks.”
However, I’m not sure this means that plonking jockey number 87 on Winx in the Cox Plate gives her the same chance as she’d have with Hugh Bowman aboard — or even a similar chance.
Those greater opportunities give the top echelon of jockeys greater experience under the pressure of big races.
Not only do they have a better idea of what to expect as these races unfold, the fact that they have been there and done that means that their level of emotional arousal will be manageable. Put a bush jockey on a decent chance in the Melbourne Cup and his/her level of arousal will be off the charts, making an optimum ride unlikely.
Unlikely, but not impossible. For example, as Keith points out, Michelle Payne in the Melbourne Cup — not that Payne was inexperienced in big races, but had she ridden in the cup? — and Lauren Stojakovic on Miracles of Life in the 2013 Blue Diamond. Both were nerveless, 10-out-of-10 rides.
Glebe (NSW)