October
JulyToppies often win
I cannot comment on Barry Bair’s observation (11/6) that tipsters and formguide experts don’t often mention the weight a horse must carry, and of course it makes a difference. But if it is of any help, the data I use in rating a race shows that saddlecloth number one wins 17 per cent of all races (Saturday metro only, and including all races, not just handicaps).
Progressively down the scale the percentage decreases. Number two wins 14 per cent, number three 12 per cent and so on right down to numbers 18-plus at one per cent.
Of course those high numbers are at a disadvantage as there are few races with so many starters, but my results prove that is immaterial.
On another topic, I agree with Michael Gamble in the same issue that Michelle Payne would be a shoo-in as a political candidate in her home town of Ballarat, but I would also love to see her as an on-course media personality.
I think a person like Michelle is above politics, but saw her once when she was not riding (injured or suspended?) as a guest saddling-paddock commentator and she was brilliant.
As Michael says, she is articulate with a high, positive profile and knows what she’s talking about.
Brighton (Qld)