October
SeptemberNo such luck
Chalky from Swan Hill (27/8) bemoans bad luck in punting, but I argue there is no such thing. We remember “bad luck”, but either forget or fail to notice “good luck”, which happens just as often, cancelling out the bad.
At the end of Richo’s great column on staking plans in the same edition, he suggests that, as backing winners is hard, laying should be easier.
I disagree. Backing and laying are exactly the same.
There are three main things between winning and losing and all can be improved.
They are:
a) Your current ability to pick winners,
b) The rake/takeout of your betting agency, which both lead into
c) The odds you take/give.
For example, on the TAB’s “Trackside” video races, you will lose the rake/takeout over time, guaranteed.
On random betting, the lower the rake the lower the loss. But it will still be a loss, back or lay.
Betting on real horses with form — and differing odds because of punters’ differing opinions — gives backers and layers a chance to overcome the rake and win.
The less your fancy is tipped, the more chance that it will be over the odds.
Form study, patience and self-control are needed to work out which are paying under or over their true chance of winning and are therefore worth backing or laying.
I’d wish you good luck, but in the long run there is no such thing, so work on your ABCs.
Flemington (Vic)