October
AugustForget the hype
It never ceases to amaze me how punters can so easily become blindsided by pre-race comments by a trainer or jockey, when sensible ratings will indicate their charge is a definite risk.
When the horse is beaten, compare the comments post-race.
Take Vancouver on August 15.
The unbeaten colt was roundly praised in advance by Gai Waterhouse and Tom Berry, who also postponed his honeymoon for the ride — comments put forward by Richard Callander in tipping him.
Pre-race, my pals roundly laughed at me when I mentioned my ratings had a minimum acceptable price for Vancouver at $3.90, with Japonisme $4.30.
Very close, were they not? A “must have a bet” punter would have ignored the $2.40 Vancouver and taken the $5 Japonisme.
I kept out altogether, because my ratings still had Vancouver on top, but with a risk not worth the $2.40.
And the reasons for Vancouver’s fourth given in the next day’s Sunday Mail by both Berry and Waterhouse? First up and big weight — the very reasons my ratings came up with a “laughable” pre-race price assessment.
Of course, like so many punters, I have found over the years that winning is not easy, and I have probably lost a small fortune.
But, since retirement has afforded the time, I have also discovered winning is possible, provided you take comments by “experts” with a grain of salt (very difficult sometimes), spend hours in form analysis, be very selective in the races in which you choose to invest, be even more selective about your chosen horse, then have the patience to wait for “your” races.
Finally, having assessed the price you require, forget the race if that price or higher is not available.
That type of discipline is not easy, and has to be nurtured. But it beats the hell out of losing.
Brighton (Qld)