October
AugustGone too early
John Wallace’s Cox Plate "certainty" Shoot Out looks to be, on a statistical basis, a near certainty to get beaten.
Research of the last 20 Cox Plate winners shows 16 resumed in August and four in September — none in July.
Moreover, the average date for the first-up run was August 23 — a full 24 days after Shoot Out resumed.
He is likely to be having his seventh run in from a spell too. The average winner was having run number 4.9. Only one winner (Maldivian) was having his seventh run in from a spell — all others had five or fewer lead-up runs.
Statistically, there is a 95-percent chance that, in winning $200,000 by peaking two months early, Shoot Out will miss the $2 million winners cheque.
I hope John proves me wrong, but so much history is against him, and unnecesssarily so too.
Carina (Qld)