October
MarchBah, humbug
Although it’s good to see the work put in by P. Connors (More Say 26/2) regarding the market movers, his result is really superfluous to anyone who reflects for a minute on the fundamental facts of the market.
Market movers by definition encourage extra turnover on horses that have already firmed, thereby ensuring that those who follow them get poor odds. These wagers cannot possibly yield a profit over the long term — no survey is needed to realise this fundamental fact.
In terms of helping punters, encouraging them to bet on horses whose top price has already disappeared is just about the worst thing that anyone could do.
So what is the rationale for market movers? Simple — they act as a revenue raiser for the TABs. In fact, all public tipsters function in this way, as revenue raisers.
Of course they cannot admit this, for it doesn’t sit well with their supposed solidarity with punters, but in reality they are implicated in a hoax, an illusion, the deception that punters — in general — can win.
Punting is a zero-sum game. Punters can only win at the expense of other punters, and with the takeout of the TABs and the corporates (betting exchanges do offer a slightly more even game) in fact only a tiny percentage of punters can win, and this at the necessary expense of the remaining majority.
This is the fundamental reality of the game. It is not like other industries, where real productivity can result in a win-win for everyone (supplier, wholesaler, retailer and buyer).
Its only "productivity" is ongoing jobs for trainers, jockeys, officials etc., and some measure of entertainment, or as the Americans say, "action", while one’s cash disappears.
This might be an unpalatable truth to swallow, but the simple fact is that the vast majority of punters lose, and this must be the case for racing to survive.
Public tipsters also lose — if they didn’t, they wouldn’t be flogging their tips in the media.
It’s this simple: those who publicly tip don’t win — those who win don’t publicly tip.
So what’s the conclusion or advice from this for the punter? A few things. 1: It’s extremely difficult to win over time, and anyone who tells you different is a charlatan. 2: Take up some other pastime rather than kid yourself that you’ve got a realistic chance of winning over time. 3: If after 1 and 2 you’re still in the game then at least do yourself the favour of taking no notice whatsoever of public tipsters.
What you can do is attempt to expose the absolute nonsense that public tipsters continually spout, as if they’ve got any idea about what "value" is, or what a "good dividend" is!
They have no idea, for they make their living from the wages they collect for generating revenue for their stations and the government, and are not accountable in any ongoing financial way for their supposedly expert opinions.
Real professional punters merely laugh at their pretentiousness, so perhaps by adopting this response to them one might at least be able to share something with the only real winners in the whole punting game.
Parkville (Vic)