October
AugustUnhappy returns
Cynical Will’s idea to base premierships on strike rates won’t catch on, but as I’ve been spruiking these past few years, the key column on the Winning Post tables is “SP%”, which indicates the percentage return that would have been gained by backing all of a jockey’s mounts (or all of a stable’s runners).
For instance, it would have been no good backing all of Craig Williams’s mounts last season. They produced only a 73-percent return, so you’d have made a loss. As good a rider as he is, them’s the facts.
So from a punting viewpoint the real winner in Melbourne last season was Michael Poy at 114% followed by Jamie Kah at 96%.
Don’t forget, obtaining best odds will improve everyone’s returns, probably gaining a good 15-20 per cent on SP.
Among the stables in Melbourne the clear winner was Busuttin/Young with a huge 152 per cent, followed by the Price/Kent team (113%) and Michael Moroney (112%).
Note the poor return for two of the top three stables by winners, Lindsay Park at 64% and Danny O’Brien at 68%.
Second-placed Maher/Eustace was not too bad at 85% but even getting the best odds you’re just breaking even.
Readers, you can go through the other city tables yourselves but a couple of points to note.
W. Pike may have an outstanding strike rate of 27% and be universally loved by all, but you’re behind if you had a tenner on all of his mounts last season at an 80% return.
Same goes for all the big trainers. They may train winner after winner but backing all their runners won’t improve your bank balance.
The notable exception was the Busuttin/Young team, and it will be interesting to see how much that percentage comes down now we all know about them. Then again, maybe they’re just warming up.
For the record, I also keep a record on the worst strike rates and returns, which aren’t listed in the Winning Post tables.
There are some big-name jockeys in there too, I can tell ya. My secret!
Caulfield South (Vic)