Exception proves rule
Last week I noticed criticism of my previous suggestion that those horses on the first four lines of corporate bookmakers’ morning prices provide 70 per cent of all winners.
In support of his criticism the corespondent quotes the figures from one race where my theory was clearly incorrect, the recent Blue Diamond.
This race obviously fell into the 30 per cent where the bookmakers get it wrong.
It was in my opinion a no-bet race, being too unpredictable.
I had believed my critic would have been sufficiently astute not to quote only one race to support his objection, when my figures have been calculated by endless research over five years.
Of course concentrating on horses on the first four lines is just the first, and very important step. There still exists the problem of selecting a value bet from among the contenders, and for this I calculate my own prices and only bet when there is obvious value.
For instance last saturday I had nine bets from all races in five states, obtained two winners (just a smidgen below my average strike rate of 25 per cent).
Aloft I assessed at $2.90, obtaining $3.50, and Secret Agenda I assessed at $3.50, obtaining $7.00. I am not a win-and-place punter, but from my other seven bets I backed three seconds and a third.
I’ll rest my case, and will just keep quietly winning.